This paper aims at assessing the causal and temporal relationships between crime and the economic indicators related to the aggregated demand function. The case study is Italy and a quarterly frequency is used (1981:1-2005:4). A Vector Autoregressive Correction Mechanism (VECM) is employed after having assessed the integration and cointegration status of the variables under investigation. Long and short run dynamics are estimated. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main findings are that, in the short run, crime positively effects GDP and government expenditure, while has a crowding out effect on exports. In the long run, crime positively leads imports and inflation, whereas negatively investments and government expenditure.
Testing the effects of crime on Italian economy / Detotto, C; Pulina, Manuela. - In: ECONOMICS BULLETIN. - ISSN 1545-2921. - 30(3):(2010), pp. 1-12.
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|Titolo:||Testing the effects of crime on Italian economy|
|Data di pubblicazione:||2010|
|Citazione:||Testing the effects of crime on Italian economy / Detotto, C; Pulina, Manuela. - In: ECONOMICS BULLETIN. - ISSN 1545-2921. - 30(3):(2010), pp. 1-12.|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||1.1 Articolo in rivista|