The paper analyses, estimates and forecasts tourism demand to Sardinia (Italy). Seasonal and non-seasonal unit root tests are employed on monthly data for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Two approaches are imple -mented: a quantitative analysis (i.e. a standard dynamic OLS and a SARMA with interventions) and an experts’ opinion qualitative approach. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run for the period between January and December 2003 and actual data are com -pared with the experts’ expectations and the quantitative results. Overall, evidence is provided that an integrative forecasting approach leads to more accurate forecasts.
Modelling and forecasting length of stay: an integrative approach / Pulina, Manuela. - In: ANATOLIA AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM AND HOSPITALITY. - ISSN 1303-2917. - 21:2(2010), pp. 305-321.
Modelling and forecasting length of stay: an integrative approach
PULINA, Manuela
2010-01-01
Abstract
The paper analyses, estimates and forecasts tourism demand to Sardinia (Italy). Seasonal and non-seasonal unit root tests are employed on monthly data for the sample period from 1987 to 2002. Two approaches are imple -mented: a quantitative analysis (i.e. a standard dynamic OLS and a SARMA with interventions) and an experts’ opinion qualitative approach. A full range of diagnostic tests is provided. An ex-ante forecasting exercise is run for the period between January and December 2003 and actual data are com -pared with the experts’ expectations and the quantitative results. Overall, evidence is provided that an integrative forecasting approach leads to more accurate forecasts.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
