University student decisions and mobility under uncertainty in the peripheral region of Sardinia

This paper investigates the influence of a shock and associated uncertainty in the context of higher education in a peripheral region, offering a novel perspective. By using an integrated methodology, based on multivariate Biplot and Combination of Uniform and Shifted Binomial (CUB) models, the study explores how an exogenous event, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, has affected students' decision-making processes regarding their higher education choices and mobility preferences amid uncertainty. The empirical application employs online survey data from a representative sample of university students in Sardinia (Italy). Its geographical isolation from the mainland provides a controlled environment to address the effect of the shock on higher education. Findings indicate that bachelor's students are greater risk takers and prefer blended learning, while master's students focus on personal and career goals. Missed migrants, who would have studied outside the region if not for COVID-19, prioritise educational quality and economic returns. Although the shock affected both stayers and missed migrants similarly, it did not fundamentally shift mobility motivations.