Land suitability analysis for forests in Lebanon as a tool for informing reforestation under climate change conditions

Along with the concept of improving reforestation efforts in Lebanon, this study aimed to provide a land suitability analysis for forest species in Lebanon while considering the effect of climate change. Herein, the soil evaluation criteria developed by FAO (The Food and Agriculture Organization) for land suitability classification were implemented through the weighted overlay method to produce suitability maps based on natural variables (soil, climate, and topography) influencing the presence of the species on the land. Cedrus libani, Quercus calliprinos, Ceratonia siliqua, Eucalyptus globulus, and Pinus halepensis are the species considered in this study. The results of this study provide useful information to inform reforestation activities in Lebanon, considering the expected climate change projections for medium- (2050) and long-term (2070) periods, according to two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and three General Circulation Models: CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, and HadGEM2-ES. The suitability maps showed a generally critical situation for the spatial distribution of forest species under future climate change compared to the current situation (1970–2000). The distribution of thermophilic species, which tolerate high temperatures (over 20 C), was projected to expand compared to the current situation. In contrast, the expansion of cold-adapted species may be limited by future climate change conditions. It is crucial to consider the expected effects of climate change to better select species for reforestation and, therefore, to maintain forest cover in Lebanon.