Using long-term data and crop modelling to assess climate change impacts on durum wheat production in the Mediterranean

Future projections of climate for the Mediterranean area indicate an increasing trend for temperature and a reduction in annual rainfall amounts during the next decades (lPCC, 2007). Different crop models were recently used to predict responses of crops to climate changes, to analyse the most appropriate actions to mitigate potential effects, and to propose guidelines for adaptation (Ludwig and Asseng, 2006; Tubiello 2000). In this study, 30-year climate and durum wheat yield datasets from two experimental sites located in southern Sardinia, Italy, were used for CERES-Wheat model calibration and validation, with the purpose of determining the impact of climate change on production.