Economic effects related to water adaptation strategy in the Mediterranean agriculture the areas of Baalbeck–Hermel (Lebanon)

The Baalbeck Al Hermel is one of the most important regions in Lebanon where farming systems play a strategic role and show relevant critical issues related to natural resources exploitation. Concerning the water, for example, this region is, indeed, characterized by irregular rainfall, with long periods of drought (FAO, 2018). However, certain agricultural practices adopted by farmers, such as vegetables, typically consume a huge amount of water, which leads to the overexploitation of water resources, and therefore, the reduction in the level of aquifers. In addition, the recourse to irrigation from groundwater is proving to be impossible and climate change is further aggravating the situation. Thus, the situation in the Baalbek Al Hermel region prompts us to ask the following question: How to increase the resilience of farms in that region and reduce their vulnerability, in the short and long term, to the repercussions of climate change? How to ensure a transition of farms in Baalbek Al Hermel towards sustainable agricultural practices, profitable, and concomitantly, less water consuming? And what are the difficulties and challenges that may hinder this process? To better understand the adaptive capacities of rural populations, it is necessary to understand the livelihoods of farmers (Menike and Arachchi, 2016) and the role of agriculture as a resilient livelihood for these populations. In agriculture, the resilience of production systems is “the ability to reorganize and maintain the function and structure of systems, which are interconnected and span different spatial and temporal scales” (Souissi et al., 2018). In this context, this study aims to understand how farmers in these areas currently perform in the face of limited water resources with little or no government support, in order to predict what could be the behaviour of those farmers in case of a decrease in water availability in the future. Based on this concept, and based on decision-support tools, the second objective will be to assess (using bioeconomic modelling) the resilience of farmers in the semi-arid Baalbeck El Hermel zone to climate change in a context of limited water resources. To meet this objective, we have developed a methodology based on several main stages: the characterization of the diversity of agricultural systems in the study area according to a quantitative typology, the design of a bioeconomic model, and the simulation of a scenario identified for a single agro-climatic zone of Baalbeck El Hermel, and the analysis of the resilience and adaptive capacity of these agricultural systems by comparing the indicators calculated by the bioeconomic model. This work will follow a quantitative typology of a multivariate statistical analysis based on the two techniques Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HAC) using the Tanagra statistical software. Further, in this research, the use of diagnostic analysis in relation to irrigation water management helps structure the analysis of problems and the identification of potential solutions related to water management. It is within this framework that this first stage of the research action takes place, the aim of which is to take stock of the current situation of water management at the level of an irrigated field in Baalbek Al Hermel. The designed study will propose strategies for adapting farms in the Baalbek-Hermel region to climate change in order to increase their resilience; therefore, it will ease farmers’ mission and may supply them with a plan that will help lessen farms' vulnerability to risks. This study is considered a model for adoption in many Mediterranean regions, by going to crops that do not need a lot of water and that resist desertification, in addition to adopting new and modern methods to reduce costs, which helps to increase agricultural income.