Climate change impact on durum wheat in Sardinia

This study involve the assessment of potential climate change impact and changing in ambient carbon dioxide (CO2) levels on production and phenology for two of the most important varieties of durum wheat at four experimental sites in Sardinia, differents for soil, climate conditions and management practices, and provide directions for possible adaptation strategies.The CERES-Wheat model in combination with a stochastic Weather Generator (WG) were used to quantify the climate change impacts on wheat growth and production. The synthetic weather series, representing the future climates, are generated by modifying the WG parameters according to the features of a set of GCM-based climate change scenarios. Twenty-seven climate change scenarios were generated, for each experimental site, by pattern scaling thecnique, considering three values of climate sensitivity and four emission scenarios.The use of this approach allowed to explore a wide range of possible future change in climate and give a more likely crop impact assessment.The results obtained show changes in wheat yield and phenology differents for climate change scenarios, varieties and locations analysed. As in other similar studies, it is projected that the interaction of multiple factors, that seem to cancel each other out, may diluite the climate change impacts. The adaptation strategy considered (shift in planting date) seems a usefull strategy in response to climate change.