Assessment of the climate change impact and adaptation strategies on Italian cereal production using high resolution climate data

The agricultural sector could suffer the impacts of climate changes projected for the coming decades with consequences varying from one region to another. Given the primary importance of wheat and maize for Italian agriculture, it is necessary to adopt the most effective adaptation strategies to climate change.The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of the increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration on the phenology and yield of the main Italian cultivars of durum wheat, common wheat and maize at the national scale, considering the climate, soil and crop management features in each cultivation area, with and without adaptation.The CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models were calibrated and evaluated at the Italian level. The assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies were made using a digital platform and high resolution climate data of two climate change scenarios related to a single climate model. The uncertainty analysis of the yield outputs associated with the different resolution of the input data was also performed.The results show increases of yield for wheat and a reduction of the maize productivity in Italy. Better results have been obtained using a fine resolution of input data. Irrigation and early sowing are the most effective adaptation strategies to climate change for wheat, while the incorporation of crop residues is an useful adaptation option for maize, especially before mid-century.