Are standardized caries risk assessment models effective in assessing caries risk?

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate the effectiveness of the methods used to identify people with an increased risk of developing carious lesions.MATERIALS AND METHODS: Scientific literature on methods used to identify individuals with an increased risk for caries development was critically evaluated through a systematic literature review. Two pilot studies were carried out, one comparing the standardized models Cariogram, Cambra and PreViser on 68 adults and a second proposing a new simplified model derived from the National Guidelines for the Promotion of Oral Health and Prevention of Oral Diseases in Children (n=71) and comparing this new model with the Cariogram and Cambra models.RESULTS: The Cariogram is the most studied model used to evaluate the caries risk with 31 out of 32 papers selected.Only in 29 subjects out of 68 there was a perfect agreement among results obtained through the three models. In the comparison between the new model and Cambra, 55 children out of 71 were classified with the same risk level, while comparing the new method with Cariogram model, the subjects were 44. Comparing Cambra and Cariogram results, only 45 subjects were classified coherently.CONCLUSION: The evidence on the validity for existing CRA models in assessing and predicting caries lesion is limited. There is an urgent need to develop valid and reliable methods for caries risk assessment that are based on best evidence for caries prediction and disease management.