We present and test a hypothesis that, to the best of our knowledge, is new in the demographic field: the age structure of any population in any period tends towards a specific shape, which can be identified in advance. This “attractor” is the age structure of the current stationary population, which we label RAS, or “reference age structure”. There is no mathematical demonstration for this tendency: however, we show that it exists in practice, measure the speed of the convergence (of the current on the reference age structure), and discuss the theoretical and practical utility of the notion.

What Shapes population age structures in the long run / De Santis, G., Salinari, G.. - (2018), pp. 1148-1153. (SIS 2018 Palermo 20-22 June 2018).

What Shapes population age structures in the long run

Salinari G.
2018-01-01

Abstract

We present and test a hypothesis that, to the best of our knowledge, is new in the demographic field: the age structure of any population in any period tends towards a specific shape, which can be identified in advance. This “attractor” is the age structure of the current stationary population, which we label RAS, or “reference age structure”. There is no mathematical demonstration for this tendency: however, we show that it exists in practice, measure the speed of the convergence (of the current on the reference age structure), and discuss the theoretical and practical utility of the notion.
2018
Inglese
Abbruzzo, A.; Brentari, E.; Chiodi, E.; Piacentino, D.
Book of Short Papers SIS 2018
SIS 2018
1148
1153
6
9788891910233
Pearson
Esperti anonimi
20-22 June 2018
Palermo
Nazionale
Age structure, Stationary population, ECM (Error Correction Model)
What Shapes population age structures in the long run / De Santis, G., Salinari, G.. - (2018), pp. 1148-1153. (SIS 2018 Palermo 20-22 June 2018).
4 Contributo in Atti di Convegno (Proceeding)::4.1 Contributo in Atti di convegno
De Santis, G.; Salinari, G.
273
2
none
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11388/273858
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